1 Individual income tax
Based on 160.6 million tax returns for tax year 2023 (IRS Statistics of Income).
How brackets work (30-second version)
A tax bracket is a marginal rate: it applies only to the dollars that fall inside that band. If the 22% bracket starts at $44,725, a single filer with $50,000 of taxable income pays 22% only on the last $5,275, not on everything. Taxable income is income after deductions, so the standard deduction works like a 0% bracket at the bottom.
ⓘ What does "% of median" mean?
In "% of median" mode each threshold is a percent of the fixed current-law (2023) median taxable income for that filing status, computed from the model's weighted returns: Single , married filing jointly , head of household , married filing separately . The dollar amount is shown next to each input.
The anchor stays at the 2023 baseline and doesn't follow your scenario. Your deductions change taxable income, and so its median, so if the thresholds followed your scenario's own median they would depend on themselves. The model always stores thresholds in dollars, so switching modes changes only how they're shown and entered, not the tax. The medians are interpolated within IRS income ranges (see Income context below). Linked schedules (for example, joint = 2 × Single) link the dollar amounts, so they show as a different percent of their own status's median.
| Taxable income over | Marginal rate | % of returns | % of income tax | Remove |
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| Top bracket (each return uses its own filing status's schedule) | Returns | % of returns | % of income tax |
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"% of returns" counts tax returns, not households. IRS data count returns, and one household can file more than one (for example, a parent and a working teenager). "% of income tax" is the share of income tax paid by returns whose top bracket is that row. It includes all of their tax, not only tax on dollars in that bracket. Hover or tap ⓘ for exact definitions.
2023 law: $13,850 single · $27,700 joint · $20,800 head of household. About 89% of returns take the standard deduction. People who itemize keep the larger of the two.
In 2023, about $1.12 trillion of taxable income (9%) was long-term gains and qualified dividends taxed at these lower rates. Most of it went to people with high incomes.
0 = "static" estimate: people earn and report the same income whatever the rates. At higher values, people report less taxable income when their marginal rate goes up (working less, shifting income, avoiding tax) and more when it goes down. Here that means taxable ordinary income × ((1 − new rate)/(1 − old rate))elasticity. Economists' estimates vary a lot depending on the method, time period and who is affected, so the default is 0 and you choose.
$157 billion of credits reduced 2023 income tax. $84 billion of that was the child tax credit and credit for other dependents, which you can change in section 2. The model keeps each return's other credits (about $73 billion) as a fixed dollar amount, capped at its tax. The EITC and other refundable credits aren't modeled.
Before 2018, each taxpayer and dependent reduced taxable income by $4,050. The 2017 law set it to $0. People per return are estimated from 2017 IRS data (Table 1.2), including that year's phase-out for high incomes.
2 Child tax credit
A credit of up to $2,000 per child under 17 (2023), plus $500 for other dependents. Part of it cuts income tax. For families who owe less tax than the credit, part can be paid out as a refund, and that refund counts as federal spending.
How the child tax credit works
Start with the amount per child (plus $500 per other dependent, such as a 17-year-old or an elderly parent). Above the phase-out income, the credit shrinks by $50 for each $1,000 of extra income. What's left reduces income tax first. That's the nonrefundable part, and it shows up here as lower income tax revenue. If the credit is bigger than the tax owed, the family can get up to a set amount per child back as a refund (the additional child tax credit), equal to 15% of earnings above $2,500. That's the refundable part. It's counted as an outlay, just as the federal budget does, and appears as its own line in the summary. "Fully refundable" drops the earnings rule and the per-child cap, as in 2021.
The under-6 share (33%) and the number of 17-year-olds (6.4% as many as ages 0–16) come from Census population estimates. They're applied evenly to every family's estimated children.
2023 law: up to $1,600 per child, 15% of earned income over $2,500. Earned income is estimated from AGI (see method notes). The special rule for families with three or more children isn't modeled.
| Current law | Yours | Change |
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Static estimate: the credit doesn't change how much people work. Current-law totals are calibrated to IRS data: $84.4B nonrefundable and $34.2B refundable (Table 3.3, TY2023).
| AGI group | Est. children | Credit, current law | Credit, yours | of which refunded | Yours per child |
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3 Tariffs (customs duties)
A tariff is a tax on imports. The importer pays it at the border, and part of the cost usually shows up in U.S. prices.
Imports = baseline × ((1 + new rate)/(1 + current rate))−elasticity. The default of 1.0 is an illustrative assumption, not an estimate. At 0, imports never fall, which overstates revenue from high tariffs.
| Category | Imports / yr | Current effective rate | Your rate | Revenue |
|---|
"Effective rate" means duties actually calculated ÷ the value of all imports in that category, including duty-free goods. Headline tariff rates on specific products can be much higher.
4 Excise taxes
Excise taxes fall on specific goods and activities, like fuel, alcohol, tobacco and plane tickets. They're often charged per unit (cents per gallon) instead of as a percentage.
Default 0 (static). When it's above 0, quantity = baseline × (new price / old price)−elasticity, assuming the tax is fully passed on to buyers. This only applies where we have a sourced price (gasoline, diesel) or the tax is a percentage of price. Other categories stay static.
Taxed amounts are worked out as FY2024 receipts ÷ current rate. For example, $25.8B of gasoline tax ÷ 18.4¢ ≈ 140 billion gallons.
| Tax | FY2024 receipts | Rate | Revenue |
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5 Who pays? Income tax by income group
Groups are based on adjusted gross income (AGI). Revenue is income tax after credits, plus the net investment income tax, which the model holds fixed.
| AGI group | Returns | Baseline tax | Your tax | Change / return | Eff. rate (base → yours) |
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